Comparing the evolutionary dynamics of predominant SARS-CoV-2 virus lineages co-circulating in Mexico (preprint)

Up to November 2021, over 200 different SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulated in Mexico. To investigate lineage replacement dynamics, we applied a phylodynamic approach to explore the evolutionary trajectories of five dominant lineages that circulated during the first year of the local epidemic. For most lineages, peaks in sampling frequencies coincided with different epidemiological waves of infection in the country. Lineages B.1.1.222 and B.1.1.519 showed comparable dynamics, represented by clades likely originating in Mexico and persisting for over a year. Lineages B.1.1.7, P.1 and B.1.617.2 also displayed similar dynamics, characterized by multiple introduction events leading to a few successful extended local transmission chains that persisted for several months. We further explored viral movements across the country, applied within the largest clades identified (belonging to lineage B.1.617.2). Many clades were located within the south region of the country, suggesting that this area played a key role in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico.

Comparing the evolutionary dynamics of predominant SARS-CoV-2 virus lineages co-circulating in Mexico (preprint)

Up to November 2021, over 200 different SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulated in Mexico. To investigate lineage replacement dynamics, we applied a phylodynamic approach to explore the evolutionary trajectories of five dominant lineages that circulated during the first year of the local epidemic. For most lineages, peaks in sampling frequencies coincided with different epidemiological waves of infection in the country. Lineages B.1.1.222 and B.1.1.519 showed comparable dynamics, represented by clades likely originating in Mexico and persisting for over a year. Lineages B.1.1.7, P.1 and B.1.617.2 also displayed similar dynamics, characterized by multiple introduction events leading to a few successful extended local transmission chains that persisted for several months. We further explored viral movements across the country, applied within the largest clades identified (belonging to lineage B.1.617.2). Many clades were located within the south region of the country, suggesting that this area played a key role in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico.

Dominance of Three Sublineages of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in Mexico (preprint)

In this study, we analyzed sequences of SARS-CoV-2 isolates of the Delta variant in Mexico, which completely replaced other previously circulating variants in the country due to its transmission advantage. Among Delta sublineages detected, 81.5 % were classified as AY.20, AY.26, and AY.100. According to publicly available data, these sublineages only reached a world prevalence of less than 1%, suggesting a possible Mexican origin. The signature mutations of these sublineages are described, and phylogenetic analyses and haplotype networks were used to track their spread across the country. Other frequently detected sublineages include AY.3, AY.62, AY.103, and AY.113. Over time, the principal sublineages showed different geographical distributions, with AY.20 predominant in Central Mexico, AY.26 in the North, and AY.100 in the Northwest and South/Southeast. This work describes the circulation, from May to November 2021, of the primary sublineages of the Delta variants associated to the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico and reinforces the importance of SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance for timely identification of emerging variants that may impact public health.

Clinical and Virological Features of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Variants in Vaccinated and Unvaccinated Patients in Mexico City (preprint)

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines are very effective at protecting against severe disease and death. However, the impact of the vaccine used, viral variants, and host factors on disease severity in vaccinated individuals remain poorly understood. Here we compared COVID-19 clinical presentations and outcomes in vaccinated and unvaccinated patients in a tertiary hospital in Mexico City. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants were also determined to study their potential impact on disease severity. Methods: From March to September 2021, clinical and demographic characteristics were obtained from 1,014 individuals with a documented SARS-CoV-2 infection, and viral variants were identified in a subset of 386 patients. We compared three groups of patients: 1) unvaccinated, 2) partially vaccinated, and 3) fully vaccinated, stratifying by age groups (<30 years, 31-60 years, and > 61 years) on the clinical outcomes, and including in-hospital mortality. We fitted different multivariate statistical models to evaluate the impact of vaccination status, SARS-CoV-2 lineages, vaccine types, and clinical parameters. Results: 1,014 patients were included, with 11% being outpatients and 88% hospitalized. Most hospitalized patients were unvaccinated. In patients over 61 years old, mortality was significantly higher in unvaccinated compared to fully vaccinated individuals. In patients aged 31 to 60 years, vaccinated patients were more likely to be outpatients (46%) than unvaccinated individuals (6.1%). The percentage of critical patients over 61 years was higher in unvaccinated than vaccinated individuals (75% vs. 56%, p < 0.001). We found immune disease (OR: 3.12, 95% CI: 1.09-8.34, p = 0.02) and age above 61 years old (OR: 3.51, 95% CI: 2.3-5.2, p = 5.9e-10) as risk factors. While fully vaccination was found as the most protective factor against in-hospital death (OR: 0.25, 95% CI: 0.12-0.46, p = 2.89e-05). Conclusions: This study suggests that vaccination and particularly full vaccination is essential to reduce mortality in a comorbid population such as that of Mexico. When analyzing the presence of comorbidities and advanced ages as risk factors, complete vaccination was the most significant protective factor against death by COVID-19. We found no strong association between SARS-CoV-2 lineages or vaccine type and disease severity.

Antibody and memory B-cell immunity in a heterogeneously SARS-CoV-2 infected and vaccinated population (preprint)

Global population immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is accumulating through heterogenous combinations of infection and vaccination. Vaccine distribution in low- and middle-income countries has been variable and reliant on diverse vaccine platforms. We studied B-cell immunity in Mexico, a middle-income country where five different vaccines have been deployed to populations with high SARS-CoV-2 incidence. Levels of antibodies that bound a stabilized prefusion spike trimer, neutralizing antibody titers and memory B-cell expansion correlated with each other across vaccine platforms. Nevertheless, the vaccines elicited variable levels of B-cell immunity, and the majority of recipients had undetectable neutralizing activity against the recently emergent omicron variant. SARS-CoV-2 infection, experienced prior to or after vaccination potentiated B-cell immune responses and enabled the generation of neutralizing activity against omicron and SARS-CoV for all vaccines in nearly all individuals. These findings suggest that broad population immunity to SARS-CoV-2 will eventually be achieved, but by heterogenous paths

Dysbiosis and structural disruption of the respiratory microbiota in COVID-19 patients with severe and fatal outcomes (preprint)

COVID-19 outbreak has caused over 3 million deaths worldwide. Understanding disease pathology and the factors that drive severe and fatal clinical outcomes is of special relevance. Studying the role of the respiratory microbiota in COVID-19 is particularly important since it’s known that the respiratory microbiota interacts with the host immune system, contributing to clinical outcomes in chronic and acute respiratory diseases. Here, we characterized the microbiota in the respiratory tract of patients with mild, severe, or fatal COVID-19, and compared with healthy controls and patients with non-COVID-19-pneumonia. We comparatively studied the microbial composition, diversity, and microbiota structure across study groups and correlated the results with clinical data. We found differences in diversity and abundance of bacteria between groups, higher levels of dysbiosis in the respiratory microbiota of COVID-19 patients (regardless of severity level), differences in diversity structure among mild, severe, and fatal COVID-19, and the presence of specific bacteria that correlated with clinical variables associated with increased mortality risk. Our data suggest that host-related and environmental factors could be affecting the respiratory microbiota before SARS-CoV-2 infection, potentially compromising the immunological response of the host against disease and promoting secondary bacterial infections. For instance, the high levels of dysbiosis coupled with low microbial structural complexity in the respiratory microbiota of COVID-19 patients, possibly resulted from antibiotic uptake and comorbidities, could have consequences for the host and microbial community level. Altogether, our findings identify the respiratory microbiota as a potential factor associated with COVID-19 severity.

Emergence and spread of the potential variant of interest (VOI) B.1.1.519 predominantly present in Mexico. (preprint)

SARS-CoV-2 variants have emerged in late 2020 and there are at least three variants of concern (B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P1) reported by WHO. These variants have several substitutions in the Spike protein that affect receptor binding; they present increased transmissibility and may be associated with reduced vaccine effectiveness. In the present work, we are reporting the identification of a potential variant of interest harboring the mutations T478K, P681H, and T732A in the Spike protein, within the newly named lineage B.1.1.519, which rapidly outcompeted the preexisting variants in Mexico and has been the dominant virus in the country during the first trimester of 2021.

Genomic analysis of early SARS-CoV-2 strains introduced in Mexico (preprint)

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected most countries in the world. Studying the evolution and transmission patterns in different countries is crucial to implement effective strategies for disease control and prevention. In this work, we present the full genome sequence for 17 SARS-CoV-2 isolates corresponding to the earliest sampled cases in Mexico. Global and local phylogenomics, coupled with mutational analysis, consistently revealed that these viral sequences are distributed within 2 known lineages, the SARS-CoV-2 lineage A/G, containing mostly sequences from North America, and the lineage B/S containing mainly sequences from Europe. Based on the exposure history of the cases and on the phylogenomic analysis, we characterized fourteen independent introduction events. Additionally, three cases with no travel history were identified. We found evidence that two of these cases represent local transmission cases occurring in Mexico during mid-March 2020, denoting the earliest events described in the country. Within this Mexican cluster, we also identified an H49Y amino acid change in the spike protein. This mutation is a homoplasy occurring independently through time and space, and may function as a molecular marker to follow on any further spread of these viral variants throughout the country. Our results depict the general picture of the SARS-CoV-2 variants introduced at the beginning of the outbreak in Mexico, setting the foundation for future surveillance efforts. This work is the result of the collaboration of five institutions into one research consortium: three public health institutes and two universities. From the beginning of this work, it was agreed that the experimental leader of each institution would share the first authorship. Those were the criteria followed to assign first co-first authorship in this manuscript. The order of the other authors was randomly assigned. IMPORTANCEUnderstanding the introduction, spread and establishment of SARS-CoV-2 within distinct human populations is crucial to implement effective control strategies as well as the evolution of the pandemics. In this work, we describe that the initial virus strains introduced in Mexico came from Europe and the United States and the virus was circulating locally in the country as early as mid-March. We also found evidence for early local transmission of strains having the mutation H49Y in the Spike protein, that could be further used as a molecular marker to follow viral spread within the country and the region.